Westfield Shopping Centre, London. Photograph by Gary Bembridge
The UK will avoid falling back into a triple-dip recession, according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).
The BCC’s Quarterly Economic Survey for the first three months of 2013 shows progress, with almost all major balances improving compared with the previous three months. However, whilst British businesses are resilient, many balances are still below pre-recession levels and the BCC warns that growth remains too low.
The survey, made up of responses from more than 7,000 businesses, shows that most key balances in both the manufacturing and service sectors strengthened in the first quarter of 2013. Export balances in services are particularly strong, with deliveries and orders nearing the all time high in 1994. Business confidence and investment are also up, and cashflow, although still relatively weak, is now positive for both manufacturing and service sector businesses.
Despite these improvements, most indicators are still below their pre-recession levels seen in 2007 and employment balances weakened overall in the first quarter.
The findings suggest the economic outlook will improve gradually, and that growth will be positive but subdued this year. The results also demonstrate resilience among UK businesses, many of whom are confident and looking to invest and increase exports this year.
Commenting on the results, John Longworth, Director General of the BCC said:
“These results provide a glimpse of the as-yet-distant sunlit uplands of recovery. Businesses up and down the country are working hard to drive the economy, create jobs and export, but they cannot accelerate this process alone”
