Romanian flag flies at Poienari Fort in Romania. Photograph by andreistroe
If certain politicians and sectors of the press are to be believed, one would think that the UK is about to be overrun with millions of Romanians fleeing their home country for this green and pleasant land. But where is this fear coming from?
Politicians like UKIP’s Nigel Farage are trying to increase their own celebrity by confusing the public in claiming that the surge of Poles that came to Britain after the last expansion of the EU’s borders will happen again. But as Farage knows from working in Europe, the reality will be very different.
It is certainly true that the 450,000 Poles that moved to the UK after 2004 was an order of magnitude more than the predictions made at the time, and in some areas of the UK there has been some strains on public services. However, times are very different now to the boom years of 2004-2008.
The British economy has continued to stagnate since 2008, and whilst the country may not yet be in a triple dip recession, it is certainly a possibility. The British GDP per capita may be notably higher than that of Romania, but the British economy is performing poorly compared to Germany which is another option for Romanian migrants.
Whilst the UK was one of the only countries to open up its borders to the Poles as they joined the EU, and so saw vastly more immigrants than our European neighbours, this is not the case with Romania. 2.5 million Romanians have already emigrated to Spain and Italy since the country joined the EU – those that urgently wanted to leave Romania already have done. Those possible future immigrants still in Romania will have a choice of Britain, Germany and the other countries in the EU when they do, and the chances of all of them choosing the UK is slim.
So why the fearmongering? Fear helps the UKIP and the right wing of the Conservatives frame the European debate as a “them vs us” rather them “them alongside us” which is the aim of the EU. We are partners with our European neighbours, no-one is invading anyone, and the British make use of the laws surrounding economic immigration within the EU as much as the other countries, with millions of British people living in Spain. It is about time we had an honest debate on Europe without all this propaganda.
