Parliament has been dissolved and campaigning is officially underway with the general election just 38 days away.
The most recent poll from YouGov shows a six percent swing to Labour after the leaders’ televised discussions with Jeremy Paxman after David Cameron shied away from a face-to-face debate with Ed Miliband.
The swing leaves Milband with the initiative and if the swing was repeated in every constituency, Labour would come near to an outright society, even if it loses badly to the SNP in Scotland. The swing would leave Labour with 314 MPs, the Tories 251, the SNP 48, and Lib Dems 16.
However, YouGov predicts that the incumbency bonus will work in the Conservatives’ favour and Labour would in reality win 289 seats, Conservative 267, SNP 43, and Lib Dems 28.
Under both predictions Ed Miliband would become prime minister, but would need allies either in an official coalition with the Liberal Democrats, or an unofficial alliance with the SNP.
David Cameron is expected to tell voters that they face a “stark choice” between the two parties, and claim that a Labour government would cause economic chaos and the UK could face losing the progress he says the UK has made since the 2008 financial crash.
However, the Labour leader has said that the Conservatives pose a real “danger” to the UK, both in terms of slowing growth with further cuts and uncertainty over a possible future referendum over whether the UK should stay within the European Union.