A vote to leave the European Union on 23 June would cause the loss of up to 820,000 jobs and push the UK into a recession within two years, George Osborne says.

Speaking at B&Q headquarters in Eastleigh, Hampshire, the Prime Minister and Chancellor set out the Treasury’s analysis of the impact on the nation’s economy over the immediate period of two years following a vote to leave.

The analysis shows that after a Leave vote, the UK would be negatively impacted by the UK becoming less open to investment under any alternative to EU membership, the rise in uncertainty about how the UK will proceed outside the EU, and financial volatility after the move.

The treasury claims that these three factors would have a “damaging effect on both the demand and supply side of the economy” that could put the economy into what it describes as “shock” or “severe shock”.

David Cameron warned:

“As the Bank of England has said, as the IMF has underlined, and as now the Treasury has confirmed, the shock to our economy after leaving Europe would tip the country into recession. This could be, for the first time in history, a recession brought on ourselves.”

Following the speech from the prime minister, Osborne concluded:

“We’ve spent 6 years dealing with what happens when recession hits this country – we’ve got one month to make sure we don’t do it to ourselves all over again. One month to avoid a DIY recession.

“The Treasury analysis shows Britain will be stronger, safer and better off if we vote to remain in the EU on 23 June.”

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