ISAF helicopters in Afghanistan. Photograph by Koldo
The ISAF withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 has once again pushed South-Central Asia, a globally strategic region, towards a decisive turning point similar to Soviet withdrawal from the war torn country in 1988. The strategic security of the regional and international interests has changed the debate, which now unfortunately is more concerned about the interests of various countries than that of the Afghan people.
There is no end to the Taliban. There is no full stop to sabotage. ISAF forces have been unable to attain the broader described goals during their decade long intervention there. There is also the issue of President Karzai decreasing popularity and the upcoming 2014 elections with opposition continuing to develop from the ethnic Hazaras, Tajiks and Pashtuns.
A rise in the level of security concerns in the region is widely expected in the post ISAF scenario. This primarily becomes an issue of concern for Tajikistan and other landlocked Central Asian States, for which an unstable Afghanistan would negatively impact their economy, and an expected rise in Islamist infiltration would add to security concerns. On the eastern borders, Pakistan is eyeing the moment to regain its bygone status, where ethnic Pashtun Taliban born and brought up in Pakistan yearn to take the hold of Kabul. India and Iran would be looking forward to redefine their current role and increase their influence. Afghanistan may be pushed again towards the similar fragility that emerged after fall of Najib government.
Sensing the importance of the issue, Russia has suggested that the United Nations should formally launch a proposal for international responsibility towards the stability and reconstruction in Afghanistan. Pakistan is dreaming again for engagement in Afghanistan through its popular strategic asset, the Taliban, amid uncompromising opposition by India.
ISAF has already initiated the community interventions to empower and strengthen local tribes to protect local communities and maintain peace in the Afghan countryside, and consequently minimizing chances of Taliban inroads in the Afghan society. The existence of some ISAF forces beyond 2014 would further help support these highly meaningful interventions.
The world has forgotten that leaving Afghanistan to face these issues alone would ultimately create a series of new stormy civil wars in the country. The remaining fabric of Afghan society would be damaged by regional powers securing their interests during the power vacuum. The decision to withdraw ISAF from Afghanistan was hasty and lacked foresight, which may further destabilise the South-Central Asian region.
