Finally some good news out of Nigeria last week as it was reported that two girls, identified as being part of the 276 schoolgirls abducted from the Government Girls Secondary School in the town of Chibok in April 2014, had been found on May 20th. The first girl found, a nineteen year old, her baby and a man who identified himself as her husband, were discovered in the Sambisa forest near the Cameroon border.
More than two years have passed since the girls were kidnapped, and despite the efforts of the Nigerian military as well as those of the viral #BringBackOurGirls movement, it was a lowly group of vigilantes hot on the trail of Boko Haram fighters that found the first Chibok girl. Whilst the government of President Muhammadu Buhari was quick to spin the rescue as a major win for the administration, the truth is that this only shows the chasm separating reality from the lofty rhetoric Buhari had sold to the Nigerian people before being elected to office in May 2015.
Indeed, the rescue should serve as a reminder to the rest of the world that Nigeria’s struggle with Boko Haram continues unabated, despite claims made six months ago by Buhari that the group had “technically defeated” – a claim that had more to do with politics than with the reality on the ground. The former general had promised on the campaign trail to root out the terrorist group and be the man to #BringBackOurGirls within six months of taking office.
Whilst for some rescuing the girls could be a reason for celebration, the 274 girls that have yet to be found and the 2.5 million people who are still internally displaced because of the conflict are nothing less than a stark wake up call: Nigeria is still very much a country on the brink.
Buhari’s failed gambit against Boko Haram
When Buhari declared Boko Haram defeated in December 2015, he was riding high on the fact that the group had lost control over a territory the size of Belgium and was reduced to a few strongholds in the rural areas surrounding Sambisa Forest. However, simply reclaiming an area of your country previously held by the enemy should not, by any stretch of the imagination, to be construed as victory on Buhari’s part, particularly when all that was accomplished was the pushing of the terrorist group deep into the wilderness. Just ask the Americans about doing battle with the Viet Cong in the jungles of Vietnam or more recently, the al Qaeda in the mountains of Afghanistan.
But this is the yardstick that Buhari has chosen to gauge its successes in this brutal war with the radical Islamic terrorist group, knowing fully well that other markers – such as the number of IDPs, victims or attacks – would have offered a more balanced picture. Indeed, within forty-eights hours of Buhari’s declaration of victory, Boko Haram slaughtered more than fifty people and injured over one hundred others in the cities of Maiduguri and Madagali. The attacks were carried out ISIS-style – with the aid of three young female suicide bombers.
What this shows is that the group is regrouping and shifting tactics away from conventional warfare looking at securing territory, to applying asymmetric tactics such as guerrilla warfare. Ever since it declared allegiance to ISIS, Boko Haram has stepped up its cooperation with the Caliphate’s offshoots in Libya. In April, a shipment carrying small caliber weapons, machine guns and rifles to Nigeria was seized near the Chadian border with Libya, leading the senior American military official in Africa to say that the two groups are sharing “tactics, techniques and procedures”. Much like ISIS, Boko Haram has increased its use of child suicide bombers, some as young as eight years old and is behaving more aggressively than before.
However, the group’s real strength lies now not in territory but in the ease with which it can capitalize on Nigeria’s extreme levels of poverty, especially in the northeast. Many of the men in the region are uneducated, mired in poverty, with no prospect for gainful employment and are turning to Boko Haram for what they perceive to be a better life.
Half-baked solutions
Whilst the Nigerian military might have taken away territory from Boko Haram, the root causes that led to the emergence of the jihadist group are still a long way from being tackled. Buhari has promised to invest in the long ignored northeast, providing education and employment, in an attempt to stem the tide of men joining the group, but given the awfully corrupt state of the Nigerian government, nobody expects the allocated funds to actually trickle down.
Moreover, given Buhari’s track record, one can be forgiven for doubting if any significant investment will be made at all. Millions of dollars have poured into Nigeria from around the world to aid in the eradication of the Boko Haram. Sadly, reportshave it that a good portion of this money is being used by Buhari to wage a personal war against his political enemies.
The world rightfully rejoiced when the first two Chibok girls were found, but none of the government’s measures that have been so far put in place can guarantee that mass kidnappings won’t occur in the future. Nigerians were shown a soft glimmer of hope at the end of a very long tunnel, but it would be foolish to underestimate Boko Haram.
