Amid announcements by the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, that Ukraine and the EU were seeing “limited but positive signs” in Eastern Ukraine, hopes for a new and more constructive approach from Russia have emerged. While the peace talks that were planned to take place this week between Russian and Ukrainian officials have been stalled after a summit between German, French, Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers failed to reach an agreement, there is still hope that Mogherini’s musings were right, and that “there are some limited but important openings” for cooperation. Indeed, the presence of Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukraine’s Poroshenko at the Paris march on Sunday 11 following the terrorist attacks on satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a Jewish supermarket, indicate that there is a possibility that the two countries can find common ground when it comes to international crises, and find a comprehensive and peaceful solution for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Although the exact date is yet to be announced, the peace talks would unfold in the Kazakh capital of Astana, and will include representatives from Russia, Ukraine, Germany, France and the OSCE. In light of the four recent deaths of Ukrainian troops in eastern Ukraine, the talks, and Russia’s willingness to fulfill the conditions hashed out under the Minsk Agreement from September 5, will be a decisive factor in the easing of sanctions against Russia over its involvement in the Ukraine conflict. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has even taken an increasingly firm stance on the issue, insisting that there would be no end to the sanctions regime “until the full implementation of [the]Minsk agreement”. Her hardline rhetoric differs from the language of other European leaders. Last week, President Francois Hollande suggested that, “the sanctions must stop now”, provided we see some initial signs of progress that Russia is revising its approach to the crisis.
While annulment of sanctions against Russia still appears to be a work in progress contingent on many factors, diplomatic and political, news has emerged that the EU may soon be forced to drop sanctions against former Ukrainian ministers and close allies of the previous Yanukovych government. On March 5, 2014, the EU imposed asset freezes on 18 people, and added 4 others on April 14, in the form of ex-ministers and allies of ousted President Yanukovych. The EU described the targets as “subject to investigation in Ukraine for involvement in crimes in connection with the embezzlement of Ukrainian state funds and their illegal transfer outside Ukraine.” Since then, however, some of the cases against these individuals in Ukraine appear to have “run out of steam”, while EU lawyers have underlined that some of the targeted individuals had not been properly informed about the cases against them by Ukraine’s authorities. Indeed, officials have admitted that the EU asset freezes were rushed under great political pressure, and while they claim to have inspected information provided by Kiev, they admit “it wasn’t possible to verify all of the reasons given for the investigations”.
The asset freezes targeted prominent individuals like Yanukovych and his sons, former Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, the former head of administration, Andriiy Klyuyev, former Justice Minister Olena Lukash and former Minister of Revenues and Duties, Oleksandr Klymenko. For his part, Klymenko has consistently denied his involvement in an alleged tax avoidance scheme. In attempts to prove his innocence to the Ukrainian public and the international community, Klymenko has madepublicly available documents from the Swiss Department of Foreign Affairs confirming that he has never held any accounts in Swiss banks. While the names of the individuals to be potentially removed from the list have yet to be released, it is already a victory for those members of Yanukovych’s former government who feel they were the targets of a political purge.
In the meantime, on January 9, the president of the European Commission, Jean Claude Juncker, proposed a third bailout programme worth 1.8 billion euros for Ukraine in order to “help the Ukrainian government to put its reform agenda into practice and trigger real change for the country and its people”. However, despite the approval of a 2015 Ukrainian budget last year, EU member states appear to have cooled to the idea of providing Kiev with additional funds due to the perception that the government has thus far failed to translate its commitment for economic reform into true action. While prominent figures such as George Soros, who suggested an extra $15 billion rescue package, have urged for even greater support for Ukraine, other academics have argued that the Ukrainian government has “not only dragged its feet on reform [but has]taken a gradualist approach to urgently needed change” putting into doubt Ukraine’s politicians’ ability to justify increased aid from the EU and IMF.
Despite hopes of linking peace talks to the disbursement of future aid, in the midst of a looming economic crisis, chilling temperatures, and low holiday spirits, citizens have also begun to express their disillusionment with the new government. High expectations following the Maidan revolution have been dashed by the lack of reforms implemented by the government, while some voices have been left with the impression that “the government has forgotten about [them], all the citizens”.
A new and democratic Ukraine remains an achievable reality, but Poroshenko’s comments that the country should brace itself for a year that will “not be easy” illustrate the difficulties Kiev faces in its fight for democracy and self-determination.
